Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

2.02.2009

Essay: China and Technology Development


When a nation sets out on the path of development, it must find ways to develop its economy in order to improve the living standards of its citizens, or at very least, to increase its total production of goods and services. Economics teaches us that the key components of economic output are capital, labor, and technology. Capital provides the raw materials, labor uses the materials to create products, and technology provides the configuration of methods for labor’s use of capital. Developing countries generally begin their development by producing resources or by producing labor-intensive goods, whereas a developed country such as the United States has a highly capitalized and highly technologically-advanced economy overall.

All other things being equal, the level of technology clearly determines the level of a country’s output. Therefore, if a country wishes to improve its output, it must raise its level of technology. A country may raise its level of technology either by research and development or through acquisition. Naturally, countries may employ differing strategies for acquisition, either coercive, commercial, or illegitimate. Once a country has acquired a new technology, it must also determine an optimal method to implement and use the technology. As technology implementation often depends strongly on the domestic environment of the country where it was created, implementation of a given technology in another country may raise problems, the alleviation of which costs time and energy. Factors such as poor infrastructure, lack of sufficiently educated human talent, and weak intellectual property rights protection all contribute to slower implementation of imported technology in developing nations.

China, being a large developing nation, gives many examples of how technology has been adapted as well as the problems associated with adapting technologies from abroad. Although the government has ostensibly pursued a modernization program, results have been mixed. Examples abound of technology theft by companies in China. Also, some companies in China may want technology, or China’s society may need technology, but in actuality the need for a technology is not met with either the will, the incentive, or the ability to pay for such a technology. Also, in many cases, China’s government holds up the release of imported technologies for dubious reasons.

China’s original technology acquisition model after the 1979 included attracting international cooperators through using the export-led growth model that had helped the Asian Tiger nations achieve the so called ‘Asian Economic Miracle’. International companies would be able to come to China and enjoy lower taxes, and inexpensive labor. In exchange, international investors would share technology and expertise with their local business partner. This model assumed that a sort of long-term spin-off effect would be achieved through such Sino-foreign partnerships. However, the model has not been totally effective for several reasons as detailed below.

Poor intellectual property protection enforcement and an ineffectual court system in China has greatly slowed the country’s technological growth. For example, if an American company goes to China and invests in a joint venture with a local Chinese firm, the joint venture partner may steal the US firm’s technology and either sell it domestically, or, more likely, utilize it in other locations where the joint venture partner has no facilities, thereby gaining the full amount of any revenue gained from selling the project. Even if the joint venture is honest and credible, there is nothing to stop competitors from copying a product and then attempting to sell it. While legal standards have improved, it is still very difficult to get a fair trial if the court is in a rural area or if the counterparty possesses significant political clout, so investors must beware when moving their operations to China.

In China, where labor is cheap and materials are cheap, engineering and design skills are still fairly hard to come by. However, as IP protection is weak, in many cases, any item that can be easily copied will be copied, from simple items such as American movies, all the way to something complex such as an automobile. A famous example of such copycat behavior occurred in 2005, when China’s Chery Automobile unveiled a compact car, the ‘QQ’, that was virtually identical in design to GM’s Chevrolet ‘Spark’--- with the extra benefit that Chery’s copy version sold for as much as $1,000 less than the Chevrolet. GM attempted to take the company to court, but failed to close the case at a Chinese court despite obvious similarities. In the end, GM dropped the suit after coming under pressure from China’s government. Naturally, the government of China has a vested interest in protecting its domestic market for its own domestic companies, particularly a national champion such as Chery, which is the largest independent Chinese automaker. Lost market share for a domestic company can cause public sentiment to tilt against the government due to a perceived government failure to protect domestic firms. Such a phenomenon of market protection occurs not only in a developing market such as China’s but also in the United States, among other countries.

However, while the Chinese government sometimes engages in protectionist behavior on behalf of domestic companies, at other times it holds the companies back from moving their services forward. One key example is the manner in which China’s government slowed the domestic rollout of the 3G mobile telephone standard. Currently, China has a large mobile phone market with hundreds of millions of subscribers. Using the 3G phone standard would allow for better spectral efficiency, thereby allowing video calls, broadband wireless data, and wireless voice telephony to be used by mobile phone customers. However, for many years, the Chinese government’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology delayed issuing 3G phone licenses to China’s wireless service providers, mainly because the government wanted to develop a domestic 3G standard, known as TD-SCDMA. Having such a domestically-controlled standard would confer several key advantages, most importantly allowing Chinese telephone providers to circumvent patent licensing fees for use of technology invented outside of China. On Wednesday, January 7, 2009, the government finally issued licenses for domestic 3G phone services , 8 years after 3G phones were launched in Japan. It is expected that the government pushed the release of the systems at this time because China’s economic growth is slowing, as cellular phone carriers are expected to invest $41 billion in order to implement 3G services.

The issue of control comes up not only in such areas as cellular phone standards, but also in the IT sector, in such areas as web portal services and search engines. The government of the PRC, anxious to have a stranglehold on sources of information, has encouraged local internet companies, including web portals like Sina.com (a copy of yahoo), and search engines like Baidu.com (a copy of Google). Beyond simple searching and portals, China also has its own web messenger (Tencent QQ , a copy of the formerly-popular internet chat program ICQ) the world’s third-largest instant messenger service, and Taobao.com, which famously defeated the USA’s Ebay in a battle for China’s online auction market. The main methods used for this sort of protectionism involve blocks of foreign companies through use of the Great Firewall of China- to this day, Google runs more slowly inside China than Baidu and has occasional service outages, thereby rendering it less competitive. It should also be noted that China’s internet favoritism extends to cover even free information sources such as wikipedia, which has been blocked in China in the past and usage of which trails the China-based Baidu-pedia inside China. This sort of protectionism reflects a type of thinking which has become popular among China’s leadership in recent years, the idea that China’s government should create ‘national champions’ in all industries, running counter to the previous model of collaboration in order to gain expertise. The idea of having ‘national champions’ potentially extends into all areas of the economy, and is a danger both to free trade and to international collaboration on science and technology.

From the opposite perspective concern often raised when discussing transfers of technology from the United States to China is an external issue: the issue of military security and military application of technology. Technologies such as aircraft engines, navigations systems, telecommunications equipment, and sophisticated materials all have possible military uses. Therefore, transfers of such technologies to a nation such as China must be carefully vetted. If not, they can allow nations such as China to build weapons possibly detrimental to the safety of the United States. In the case of the Chinese economy, the state collaborates highly in economic activities, so most companies will have some type of government ties. This interconnectedness makes determining whether or not a given business partner can be considered safe extremely problematic.

A final issue that heavily influences technology transfer to a developing nation such as China is price. With a population of 1.3 billion people and a per capita GDP of only around $2000, China’s government is often ill-equipped to bring in technologies that may benefit society. In particular, the concept of externalities has not been thoroughly disseminated in China, meaning that if the economy grows at a pace of 10% per year, then obviously the country is doing excellently, regardless of the fact that pollution-related lung conditions and birth defects have risen sharply. Such shortsighted thinking also leads Chinese buyers to discount a long-term investment in environmental technology as being wasteful, as it does not maximize profits in the short run. Although the Chinese government is working towards promoting better environmental standards, implementation of perfect environmental controls will not happen overnight.

However, examples do exist for successful transfers of technology: recently, the Chinese government has agreed to receive magnetic levitation train technology from Germany. On 29 January 2009, Germany’s Thyssen Krupp Technologies signed a memorandum of understanding to transfer the core technologies for the magnetic levitation train to China’s Shanghai Magnetic Transportation Development Co. at a meeting of the German and Chinese governments in Berlin. Currently China has a single monorail line in operation in Shanghai, with plans to extend the line further and possibly create a Shanghai-Beijing maglev link in the future.

One final thought: with regard to the learning curve involved for China to move up the production chain. Ideally, initial economic prosperity would lead to higher investment in education, which would then trigger a virtuous circle of development. However, the government has been lax in enacting this virtuous circle, without which, the country is only able to compete on cost. Overall, China needs to focus more on developing its labor resources and technology in the future if it hopes to conquer its problems in development.

1.10.2009

School Paper: Infectious Diseases and Global Warming: If The Bugs Don’t Get You, the Heat Sure Will

I finished my undergraduate education in the winter of 2003. It was a very cold and snowy winter in Massachusetts, and I remember my drive home from Amherst to my house near Boston, which took five hours due to an intense blizzard. I was lucky, because I –only- skidded my car into two snowbanks, and avoided any serious accidents. I had handed in my graduation thesis and defended it successfully, and was about to enjoy my graduation present--- my parents had offered to buy me a car, but I felt that such a gift would exceed my need, so I made a counter-offer: I wanted a ticket to China. I had previously studied in Fudan University in Shanghai, China during the millennial school year, and greatly missed the energy of life in the bustling port city of 16 million people. Looking at my passport, I can see from the border stamp that I entered China on 29 March, 2003. My timing could scarcely have been better- I was just in time to catch the peak of the 2003 outbreak of SARS.

As I prepared for my trip in February, I noted news reports of a new disease that had spread across East Asia. The disease had originated in Guangdong province in Southeast China , and had spread to Hong Kong through a mainland Chinese doctor who stayed at the Metropole Hotel. The disease spread rapidly, but muzzling of media sources by face-conscious mainland Chinese government officials eventually led to near-hysteria: formerly jam-packed subways and buses emptied of commuters, buildings required body temperature checks on entry, the surgical face mask became an ubiquitous health accessory, and taxicabs boasted of being disinfected ‘multiple times daily’ for the safety of passengers.

The final death totals from SARS were not great, with only approximately 775 deaths , quite low in comparison with such causes of death as cancer or road traffic accidents, which killed 7.4 million people and 1.3 million people in 2004, respectively . However, the Asian Development Bank estimated that economic losses from disruption of trade and tourism by SARS would reach at least US$12.3 billion . Furthermore, the SARS epidemic led to problems for overseas Chinese in North America- such an outbreak represented a global problem. Had it not been contained in time, SARS could have caused significant casualties- in the past, for example, various influenza pandemics have killed up to 50 million people in a matter of years , an amount of deaths which might be expected to be produced by the outbreak of a major war. Anytime such an international health problem occurs, countries should work together to prevent its spread, as failure to check the spread of such diseases would lead to obviously catastrophic consequences.

On the other hand, the United States has certain domestic health problems which do not have strong prima facie global implications. For example, the United States spent a total of $75 billion on obesity-related medical costs in 2004 ; however, while obesity and heart disease are major heath issues in the United States, there is no chance that a business traveler on an international trip to Europe could spread his obesity or heart disease to the general population of a European country in the same manner in which he could spread SARS, or to a lesser extent AIDS.
Moving away from simple human-related issues the menace of a continuing trend of global warming currently threatens the continued existence of modern civilization as we know it, with probable results including a higher sea level, increasing desertification, and disruption of weather patterns and agricultural yields. The combined problems brought on by the projected climate change will greatly affect nearly everyone on Earth, an amount of people at least an order of magnitude higher than the usual amount of people who feel strong effects of an infectious disease. Furthermore, because issues of climate change are caused by and affect all nations worldwide, the framework for countering climate change will need to contain all nations. In comparison, an outbreak of a disease may be fought mainly by those countries who have been hit most severely by the disease- China, in the case of SARS. People often have difficulty prioritizing issues, and the problem of resource allocation of resources to such diverse projects as medical research, energy research, and military research is one that perennially occupies the United States Congress. Perhaps what the United States needs more than anything is to take stock of what is actually required for survival in the world today, followed by a reconsideration of national policies in light of the findings of such an investigation.

4.16.2008

Thursday Malarkey

As now everyone has put 'love China' on their MSN, I have responded in kind by changing my SN to 'love clean nature, free media, democracy, and la mian', because at least China has la mian.

3.13.2008

significant news of the day

The news of Taiwan's reversal of its previous ban on Taiwanese banks' investment in the mainland as well as the possibility of making it easier for mainlanders to buy property in Taiwan and for Taiwanese companies to bring mainland workers over sprung out at me as being rather significant for ever so many reasons.

Points of thought:

1) This would seem to indicate a further step towards reunification and a step closer to the end for Taiwanese independence supporters. On the one hand reunification has the possibility of doing many good things for the economy of Taiwan. On the other hand, freedom is a hefty price to pay for a bigger payday. One country, two systems has proven beneficial for a certain portion of residents in HK, but the SAR has experienced strong economic polarization as well.

2) Exposure to Taiwan living may benefit mainland workers.

3) Investment offrun from the mainland property bubble would also be good for the Taiwanese real estate market?

2.12.2008

Smokescreen, Presidential Races, and Spielberg

Everyone's talking about Edison. In the past four days in Hong Kong, not one conversation with a friend failed to touch on it. Sitting down for lunch in the chacanting, the two guys sitting across the table were reading gossip mags with Edison pics, on the plane back, the front page news of the newspapers being read by people on both sides of me was Edison.

Through reading news on the HK MTR's internet kiosks, I have been following the election news, which says that Obama continues to lead Hillary Clinton, although an NY Times article which I read last night says that neither candidate may have enough votes to win the nomination, and the primary will be decided by superdelegates, which seem to be basically an intraparty voting committee selected in rather arbitrary fashion. The NYT article seemed to paint the superdelegate voting system as a way that Hillary may be able to snatch victory away from Obama.

By far the most interesting news of the morning, however, is that Steven Spielberg has resigned as artistic advisor to the Beijing Olympics. His main reason for quitting was due to China's lack of action to stabilize the chaos in Darfur in the Sudan. It will be extremely interesting to see how the PRC media decide to handle his resignation...Maybe they can get his non-union Mexican equivalent...

1.29.2008

Tuesday, Suharto, China

Reading the cover article and editorials about the death of present Suharto of Indonesia in Monday edition of WSJAsia I was immediately struck by the obvious parallels with and focus on China. The cover story by Richard Borsuk led with:

"Suharto, the autocratic leader who dominated Indonesia for 32 years, lifeted his country out of extreme poverty. But many Indonesians are more likely to remember Mr. Suharto, who died yesterday at age 86, as a stubborn strongman who blocked the development of democracy, repressed civil liberties and fostered a business culture tainted by patronage, nepotism and corruption..."(italics mine)

Inside, two editorials gave varying treatment to Suharto, drawing parallels between Suharto and Mao Zedong: "His government brought stability and prosperity, at a price" and Suharto and Deng Xiaoping: "he rescued his country from totalitarianism and poverty, and put it on the path to prosperity and a large measure of personal freedoms."

All of the articles make reference to economic corruption and nepotism in Indonesia, which I think has strong parallels to what is going on in a large portion of businesses in China, the mixture of money, politics, and family, permissible when the Indonesian economy boomed in the mid-90s, which eventually led to riots and turmoil after the Asian financial crisis of 97-98.

The main WSJ article also harps on Suharto for the media control during the 1980s, another place where Suharto's policies resemble the mainland China of today.

Wikipedia's entry on Indonesia's economy gives further examples of places where the business environments of the two countries resemble each other, chief among which are the large amount of state-owned enterprises and weak rule of law.

In the same issue was a short article about J Craig Venter, the biologist who deciphered the human genome. I recently saw a video of Dr. Venter giving the 2007 Dimbleby lecture, on genetics and synthetic genomics. He hopes to make synthetic bacteria which would be able to produce chemicals, or produce or absorb carbon.

I was just watching Goodness Gracious Me and Vic & Bob on youtube. Why does wikipedia link to youtube, but youtube doesn't link to wikipedia? It would be quite handy to be able to have two-way links...