700 words on Obama's energy policy

United States President-elect Barack Obama’s energy platform makes bold promises to transform the United States’ energy usage mix and represents a significant departure from previous US energy policy, differing significantly from the reference cases presented in the United States’ Energy Information Administration (the ‘EIA’)’s 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (the ‘Energy Outlook’ ). While implementation may not necessarily be smooth, the Obama platform would be a solid step in the right direction for the United States and its policies would accord with the recommendations made in the International Energy Agency’s 2008 World Energy Outlook (the ‘WEO’ ).

The Obama energy plan has several main objectives designed to increase the energy independence of the United States. The plan emphasizes efficient energy use in the transport sector- this is natural, as a majority of the gasoline used by the United States is used in vehicles: the plan therefore mandates higher fuel economy standards for vehicles, tax credits for purchase of efficient vehicles, and increasing use of hybrid automobiles. The plan has been supported by Chairwoman of the US Senate Committee of Environment and Public Works Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who recently announced her plan to introduce legislation in January which would invest US$15 billion per year for innovation in clean energy and establish a cap and trade system for greenhouse gas emissions . The Obama plan also includes incentives for greater energy efficiency, which is often considered to be one of the ‘low hanging fruit’ in the area of energy use. Increased efficiency in heating and insulation would slow the growth of domestic energy use and also create jobs for workers involved in the implementation of efficiency measures. Finally, the Obama energy plan also would promote some use of domestic oil, coal and gas reserves, with a focus on keeping carbon emissions low in order to conform with the administration’s goal of decreasing national greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050, and would also consider the possibility of increased nuclear power use.

The EIA has projected several different scenarios for possible US domestic energy use to the year 2030. The reference case projection assumes that the United States’ energy mix will not change greatly and that current energy policy will remain roughly constant, with fossil fuels continuing to meet 80% of US energy use needs in 2030, down 5 percentage points from 85% in 2006. Nuclear and renewable fuels would grow to 20% of total energy needs from 15% in 2006, and the fossil fuels mix would also be adjusted, with more coal and less oil and natural gas. The energy mix in the reference case would therefore produce a 16% increase in national greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, which is an entirely different direction of growth for greenhouse gases compared to the Obama plan.

In the face of worldwide greenhouse gas reduction needs as well as current trends for policy change, I would not consider any of the reference cases presented in the Energy Outlook to be acceptable possibilities. As the WEO states, “current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable”: clearly, changes to the status quo of energy use must be made. On the other hand, the Obama plan, while ambitious and broad in scope, represents only the first step in what must be an even more far-reaching effort to improve mankind’s climactic footprint on the Earth. Recently, NASA scientist James Hansen has stated that the world’s carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced to at most 350 parts per million and unrestricted burning of coal stopped within the next decade, and former US Vice President Al Gore, winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, has stated that the United States should eliminate its dependence on fossil fuels for energy production within 10 years. The Obama plan admirably and commendably addresses the superficial effects of overproduction of greenhouse gases; however, it does not address the root causes, which include auto-reliant infrastructure design, ignorance of externality costs and an overemphasis on consumption as a measure of standard of living. Furthermore, efforts must be made to include the entire developing world in efforts to mitigate climate change. Having spent the last five years living in the People’s Republic of China, I have seen firsthand the effects of coal burning power generation and poor emissions controls. At this point, the United States needs not only to reverse its path, but also to persuade China and India from following in its footsteps, and I feel that the Obama Plan will need to be revised before it can tackle these more ambitious goals.

Ｓｃｈｏｏｌ Ｐａｐｅｒ： Information Technology and the Balance Between States and Private Actors

The development of information technology in the 20th century revolutionized the way in which data spreads around the world, causing both the level of speed and also the level of precision with which data can be sent anywhere to push forward the pace of human life on Earth and allow for stronger multinational business and trade. The increasing speed and quality of information flow has given benefits to both governmental actors and to non-governmental actors. Governmental actors have gained better data surveillance and storage methods, better analysis tools and swifter communications methods. Non-government actors have gained capabilities for faster and more diffused dissemination of information, faster communication times, and better copying of digital information, as well as the potential for greater amounts of information production. For as long as the full range of human thought processes cannot be mechanized by utilizable data processing technology, the current level of information technology grants nongovernmental organizations a long-term advantage over governments; however, this advantage will be tempered by the lag in implementation, as well as continually imperfect distribution of information.

Information technology benefits governments in a variety of ways. Digitization of citizens’ information allows governments to track, analyze, and communicate information regarding its citizens internally. Anyone who has been stopped while driving in the United States has experienced this, as a police officer will run a digital search on the license plate of the stopped car and the license number of the driver to see if there are any outstanding warrants or incidents pertaining to the car and driver. At a higher level, a signals intelligence system such as the ECHELON system jointly operated on behalf of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand can intercept and analyze transmitted data such as telephone calls, faxes, and e-mails. Benefits to such a system could include interceptions of possible terrorist communication . In the commercial realm, increasingly sophisticated systems that monitor purchasing patterns allow businesses to tailor advertising and marketing towards individual consumers, leading to theoretical increases in efficiency of sales. However, systems similar to the ECHELON system can also lead to a loss of privacy and freedom for citizens- for example, it is possible for a country such as the People’s Republic of China to scan its phone messages and tell when someone is speaking on a topic which may be considered subversive to the government, and to monitor and control the domestic internet to prevent the spread of information which it deems unacceptable. The downside of tracking of purchasing patterns also becomes apparent when an individual is flooded with unsolicited e-mail after purchasing a book about baseball for a friend on an online marketplace site such as amazon.com: within a week, one might receive several unsolicited and irrelevant mails advertising for items such as baseball memorabilia, baseball tickets, baseball equipment. While such advertising may be blocked through the use of email ‘spam’ filters, there is an opportunity cost involved with the use of such filters as potentially important mails could be blocked by the filters, and lost forever unless a user dedicates himself to regular review of his ‘junk’ email folder. In the long run, future technology may lead to a face-recognition system (such systems are already in place in certain airports , although they are not yet infallible) or retinal-scan techniques which may some day mature to be used in a way such as that depicted in director Steven Spielberg’s 2002 film ‘Minority Report’.

Keeping in the vein of fiction, some may fear that in the end, new advances in information technology hardware might allow governments to set up an information gathering and propaganda distribution network similar to the one used by the government of Oceania in George Orwell’s 1949 novel ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’, in which perfected use of monitoring, propaganda, and economic production controls allows a totalitarian state to exert near-absolute control over its citizens. However, such an outlook neglects the issue of software. Currently, at some point, humans must still be involved in a discretionary role over the decisions made using data gathered by new information technology systems, leading to issues for when humans fail to synthesize information in a suitably prompt and succinct manner, the so called ‘analysis paralysis’, as well as other issues having to do with information overload. Furthermore, the advent of the personal computer and high speed internet has allowed individuals and non-governmental organizations to organize through channels such as mass e-mailing, video sharing sites, and social networking sites. The decentralized nature of the internet, which figured prominently in its original design, as well as and the rapid speed at which digitized information can be copied and modified, allows thought expressed online to be resilient in its survival, so that even as a government such as China moves to cut off an online site which expresses contrary opinions, users have copied and posted the opinions to several other sites, the users of which can then copy the information and continue its spread to more sites, thereby frustrating the efforts of governments to control information.

Naturally, information technology has not yet proved to be a magic bullet for democracy-seeking citizens of modern nation-states, a low signal-noise ratio in terms of political thought still plagues citizens, and the above-mentioned issues of paralysis of analysis and information overload affect all human beings, not just those who work for governments, and such limitations will continue to affect human beings until human intelligence can be fully automated. New information technology will push forward the current level of efficiency: a good example is current United States President-elect Barack Obama’s use of online video sharing sites to spread his speeches during the most recent presidential election. However, the world currently still depends significantly on traditional media, and Obama’s use of video in his victory represents the grasp of how to use a new communication, rather than a total paradigm shift of the United States’ political process. It remains to be seen as to whether the populace will be able to use the currently available tools to transform their relationship with modern nation-states.

Smokescreen, Presidential Races, and Spielberg

Everyone's talking about Edison. In the past four days in Hong Kong, not one conversation with a friend failed to touch on it. Sitting down for lunch in the chacanting, the two guys sitting across the table were reading gossip mags with Edison pics, on the plane back, the front page news of the newspapers being read by people on both sides of me was Edison.

Through reading news on the HK MTR's internet kiosks, I have been following the election news, which says that Obama continues to lead Hillary Clinton, although an NY Times article which I read last night says that neither candidate may have enough votes to win the nomination, and the primary will be decided by superdelegates, which seem to be basically an intraparty voting committee selected in rather arbitrary fashion. The NYT article seemed to paint the superdelegate voting system as a way that Hillary may be able to snatch victory away from Obama.

By far the most interesting news of the morning, however, is that Steven Spielberg has resigned as artistic advisor to the Beijing Olympics. His main reason for quitting was due to China's lack of action to stabilize the chaos in Darfur in the Sudan. It will be extremely interesting to see how the PRC media decide to handle his resignation...Maybe they can get his non-union Mexican equivalent...