Showing posts with label energy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label energy. Show all posts

5.19.2010

Paper: Thirst for Oil, Feet of Clay


External threats, oddly enough, have several attractive characteristics for nation-states. In particular, external threats allow nation-states to mobilize easily at the sub-state level. During the Cold War, the United States faced an existential crisis from the threat posed by the Soviet Union. In the twenty years since the close of the Cold War, however, the United States has yet to face an existential external threat, rather, it faces a larger amount of insidious sub-state-level problems, one of which is the problem of energy consumption.

Theoretically, there is nothing wrong with the high level of energy consumption enjoyed by the citizens of the United States. If humanity possessed workable nuclear fusion reactors or some other MacGuffinish limitless clean energy source, then the need to conserve energy would vanish. However, with currently implemented technology, the world’s energy supply has hard limits. Complicating matters, the level of energy consumption serves as a rough indicator of the standard of living of a country, and if we go by the level of energy consumption, then the citizens of the United States are very prosperous indeed. Of course, the correlation between high energy consumption and high standard of living is by no means direct: the law of decreasing returns holds true for energy consumption just as it does for most other economic processes. To give a simple example, if one were to base standard of living strictly on the amount of energy used, then a worker who drives 30 minutes per day to work would be considered more prosperous than a worker who rides a bicycle 30 minutes per day to work; however, other factors beyond simple energy consumption affect the overall calculation of the well-being of the two commuters. Moreover, ancillary problems produced by high levels of energy consumption in the United States cause negative repercussions through the international system. Thus the United States must face the problems of how to eliminate or deal with these negative effects.

The main problems stemming from the US’ energy consumption can be divided into problems of energy sources and those of energy use. The problem of energy sources is a complex one, which can be be thought of using the different levels of analysis of the international system. At the systemic level, the current reliance of the world upon oil produced by various petro-states promotes an international system which causes strife in the Middle East, causes competition between states for hydrocarbon resources, and requires a world policeman. Furthermore, if greenhouse gases are produced without containment, the effects of climate change are extremely adverse. At the state level, the United States’ high level of energy consumption links it in alliances to rentier states, compromises the US’ efforts to promote civil rights and democracy around the world, and places the US economy in danger from price shocks. The issue of consumption of energy links also to health problems in the United States, particularly in the areas of food security as well as obesity, which are both public health hazards that the United States confronts now and will continue to confront in the future.

Currently, much of the energy used by the United States comes from fossil fuel sources, reliance on which produces many consequences for the United States’ role in the international system and on its relationship with other nations. In particular, one cannot discuss international energy issues without touching on the issues of oil, the premier strategic commodity in the world today. The United States depends on oil to run its infrastructure and its armed forces. The critical nature of oil for all aspects of life in the United States and other developed nations means that areas containing oil have a huge strategic importance. The crucial nature of oil has therefore caused the United States to set aside principles of democracy and human rights promotion when it becomes necessary to deal with repressive states to acquire oil. In fact, the United States’ strategic requirement for oil means that it will never be free to follow a true Wilsonian international policy of democracy and civil rights promotion internationally. Instead, the United States has allied itself with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, carries out drone attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and entangles itself in oil geopolitics throughout the Middle East, Latin America, and the former Soviet Union. Additionally, the fact that oil must be shipped around the world means that the United States must maintain a network of bases around the world to house ships, planes, and troops responsible for the safety of oil shipments and oil production. Moreover, another factor supporting the United States’ efforts around the world is a network of extraordinary renditioning of individuals who are deemed hostile to the United States, a system which has questionable legality and violates the ideals of liberty and freedom that the founders of the United States held. While a significant portion of United States citizens would most likely wish to end extraordinary renditioning if made aware of it, the fact if its invisibility during normal daily life means that individuals generally do not feel the necessity for its elimination. In fact, sub-state-level factors such as energy consumption and energy demand are at the root of much of the United States’ forward military presence around the world.

A second issue brought on by the United States’ high level of energy use is the emission of anthropogenic climate change gases. Currently, the world’s atmosphere contains over 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide. Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can lead to warming of the global climate, which leads to many dangers to the people of the United States, including higher levels of intense weather, desertification, Klassifikation of oceans, and rising ocean levels. All of these environmental problems have strong potential to create difficulties for food production, as well as having the ability to disrupt life when natural disasters occur.
A final issue that pertains to the United States’ high level of energy use is the health risks which are caused by a sedentary lifestyle which automobile use and low food prices which cheap energy entails. A sedentary lifestyle often leads to obesity, which in turn leads to both health risks and health care costs.

Naturally, there are possibilities for other mitigating behaviors which would eliminate all or some of the adverse effects caused by the US’ high levels of energy consumption. For example, the United States can use its armies to safeguard energy, and research better technologies so that our forces abroad will not be harmed by hostile actors. The United States can also research systems that will allow carbon dioxide to be buried in the ground, thereby lowering the amount of greenhouse gases in the air. Finally, the government can implement subsidies for individuals who receive good health checks at the doctors’ office, thereby countering the effects of sedentary life on public health in the United States. However, a disconnect separates these ideas from practical implementation. Hence, while the United States may wish, on the one hand, to find methods to mitigate the effects brought on by its high overconsumption of energy, it may also wish to find ways to address the root cause of that high energy use, which is fundamentally an issue of price: current energy prices in the United States and in the rest of the world do not fully reflect the externality cost of the emissions that they produce. Until the present, the United States has used international action to preserve this system; however, it may be more efficient in terms of lives saved and economics to examine the alternative of lowering energy use.

The United States has three main mechanisms that it can use to lower energy use: more efficiency and higher prices. We can think of energy-use efficiency measures in several different ways. First of all, the United States has energy standards, which can be raised system-wide for various energy-using systems in order to decrease energy use. Chief among these standards are CAFE standards, which regulate various firms’ automobile fleet fuel efficiency. Secondly, systems configuration can be adjusted in order to decrease energy use, either through adjustment of zoning or through improving public transportation. Examples of reconfiguration include automobile commuter lanes and mixed-use zoning. Overall, efficiency has the potential to drop energy use by a significant amount. Alternately, the United States can mobilize markets to decrease national energy use, either by placing a tax on goods or on oil. In essence, such financial incentives enlist the help of the market to decrease energy use. However, such measures also can have strong inflationary consequences,which were demonstrated during the oil crises of the 1970s. Due to the inflationary effects of higher energy prices, governments often avoid increasing such prices if the governments lack a framework for translating higher energy prices into economic growth. One method to prevent such shocks that is often discussed is a global market for carbon, which would create a worldwide price for emissions, thereby capping energy carbon emissions at a certain level. Such a mechanism would allow for a more gradual rise in prices, thereby averting inflationary shocks to the United States’ economy.

One other question worth asking is the question of how the current need to decrease energy consumption relates to the implementation of high modernistic ideas. Generally, high modernist thought takes technological progress as a panacea. However, the magic bullet for the world’s energy problems has proved elusive. The threats caused by such problems, on the other hand, are concrete physical reality, so the United States should use methods that are currently available to overcome energy threats. A brief list of such methods includes better efficiency standards for buildings and vehicles, higher coal and oil prices, substitution of carbon-neutral energy sources for oil and coal, and a readjustment of infrastructure to phase out reliance on coal and oil in all phases of life as well as the gradual replacement of the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine with cleaner technology.

Much of the burden for the implementation of measures to decrease energy consumption in the United States lies on the government. The task which the government faces is how to convince voters that less energy consumption actually represents a better deal for the United States as a whole. Currently, the United States Senate is debating an energy bill that would take a decisive first step towards dealing with the problem. If and when the bill passes, it would begin to chip away at the problem of the United States’ high domestic energy consumption, and the United States would thereby gain greater flexibility in promotion of democracy and freedom around the world.

1.10.2009

700 words on Obama's energy policy

United States President-elect Barack Obama’s energy platform makes bold promises to transform the United States’ energy usage mix and represents a significant departure from previous US energy policy, differing significantly from the reference cases presented in the United States’ Energy Information Administration (the ‘EIA’)’s 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (the ‘Energy Outlook’ ). While implementation may not necessarily be smooth, the Obama platform would be a solid step in the right direction for the United States and its policies would accord with the recommendations made in the International Energy Agency’s 2008 World Energy Outlook (the ‘WEO’ ).

The Obama energy plan has several main objectives designed to increase the energy independence of the United States. The plan emphasizes efficient energy use in the transport sector- this is natural, as a majority of the gasoline used by the United States is used in vehicles: the plan therefore mandates higher fuel economy standards for vehicles, tax credits for purchase of efficient vehicles, and increasing use of hybrid automobiles. The plan has been supported by Chairwoman of the US Senate Committee of Environment and Public Works Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who recently announced her plan to introduce legislation in January which would invest US$15 billion per year for innovation in clean energy and establish a cap and trade system for greenhouse gas emissions . The Obama plan also includes incentives for greater energy efficiency, which is often considered to be one of the ‘low hanging fruit’ in the area of energy use. Increased efficiency in heating and insulation would slow the growth of domestic energy use and also create jobs for workers involved in the implementation of efficiency measures. Finally, the Obama energy plan also would promote some use of domestic oil, coal and gas reserves, with a focus on keeping carbon emissions low in order to conform with the administration’s goal of decreasing national greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050, and would also consider the possibility of increased nuclear power use.

The EIA has projected several different scenarios for possible US domestic energy use to the year 2030. The reference case projection assumes that the United States’ energy mix will not change greatly and that current energy policy will remain roughly constant, with fossil fuels continuing to meet 80% of US energy use needs in 2030, down 5 percentage points from 85% in 2006. Nuclear and renewable fuels would grow to 20% of total energy needs from 15% in 2006, and the fossil fuels mix would also be adjusted, with more coal and less oil and natural gas. The energy mix in the reference case would therefore produce a 16% increase in national greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, which is an entirely different direction of growth for greenhouse gases compared to the Obama plan.

In the face of worldwide greenhouse gas reduction needs as well as current trends for policy change, I would not consider any of the reference cases presented in the Energy Outlook to be acceptable possibilities. As the WEO states, “current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable”: clearly, changes to the status quo of energy use must be made. On the other hand, the Obama plan, while ambitious and broad in scope, represents only the first step in what must be an even more far-reaching effort to improve mankind’s climactic footprint on the Earth. Recently, NASA scientist James Hansen has stated that the world’s carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced to at most 350 parts per million and unrestricted burning of coal stopped within the next decade, and former US Vice President Al Gore, winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, has stated that the United States should eliminate its dependence on fossil fuels for energy production within 10 years. The Obama plan admirably and commendably addresses the superficial effects of overproduction of greenhouse gases; however, it does not address the root causes, which include auto-reliant infrastructure design, ignorance of externality costs and an overemphasis on consumption as a measure of standard of living. Furthermore, efforts must be made to include the entire developing world in efforts to mitigate climate change. Having spent the last five years living in the People’s Republic of China, I have seen firsthand the effects of coal burning power generation and poor emissions controls. At this point, the United States needs not only to reverse its path, but also to persuade China and India from following in its footsteps, and I feel that the Obama Plan will need to be revised before it can tackle these more ambitious goals.